Build, Baby, Build.
If we don't increase housing supply, we're dooming ourselves to entrenched GOP rule. The good news? We have control.
Check out Bad News, Democrats: America Is About to Get Even Redder. TL;DR (but you should): the culprit is the Blue State self-inflicted housing supply crunch.
California’s set to lose 4 Electoral College votes and House seats in 2030 because cities like LA won’t allow apartments on 72% of its land. This problem gets replicated all across California, other blue states, and especially blue cities.
We’re strangling the golden goose of our robust economies by refusing to increase housing supply. We don’t build nearly enough housing to match all of the jobs we create. If we don’t change out act now, we risk losing our economic - and political - might for years to come.
As Jerusalem Demsas recently wrote, “When people vote with their feet, they’re sending a clear signal about which places make them optimistic about the future. What does it say about liberal governance that Democratic states cannot compete with Florida and Texas?”
We too frequently thumb our noses at those people. We tell ourselves that we choose to pay more money to protect our rights, but millions simply don’t have that choice. For us to present it as a choice for the very people we claim to care most about is hypocritical snobbery.
Even for the people who choose to stay, we’re seeing rightward shifts politically enhanced by cost of living challenges. Look at LA County, NYC, and New Jersey.
The good news is that we have control over housing.
Think about that liberating feeling of control! I’ve lacked it since November 5, but damn, it’s great to know there’s something I - and so many of you - have the ability to heavily influence in our own communities that directly helps our democracy.
Trump’s chaos will throw sand in the gears causing building costs to increase via tariffs and mass deportations, forcing higher construction and labor costs. But he can’t stop us altogether.
Even if and when he tries, shouldn’t we have the zoning laws in place that incentivize commonsense housing whenever possible, anyway?
Want more women to live where abortion access is the law? Build more housing.
Want LGBTQ people to live free of discrimination? Build more housing.
Want teachers, police, firefighters, nurses, EMTs, and all the others who make your community function to actually live in the cities they serve? Build more housing.
Want lower racial disparities in homeownership and decreased segregation? Build more housing.
Want your children to be able to afford to live where they grew up? Build more housing.
Want fewer homeless encampments? Build more housing.
Want more immigrants to grow our economy and be the workforce caring for us (and save Social Security and Medicare) in our old age? Build more housing.
Want more Democrats in the House of Representatives? Build more housing.
Here’s a sobering anecdote: Of the dozens of Afghan refugees I helped resettle in Greater in LA after the fall of Kabul, the majority of the families ultimately left for Houston, despite Texas’s toxic anti-immigrant politics.
Houston builds at 14x the rate of San Jose. Are we surprised these newcomers voted with their feet?
Contrary to the belief that increasing housing supply is an electoral loser because of well-organized opposition from wealthy homeowners, 95% of pro-housing lawmakers won reelection in November.
There’s nuance to implementing YIMBY policies, where up-zoning more frequently means prioritizing higher density in commercial and transit-dense corridors and duplexes or three-story buildings in single-family areas. It’s not taking bulldozers to your single-family home or mandating skyscrapers next door.
In that light, there’s compelling reason that townhomes should be the American Dream. As Amanda Shendruk and Heather Long wrote, “[Townhomes] are cheaper to build. They usually face less “not in my backyard” resistance. And buyers love them. Townhouses have all the trappings of a classic dream home, but they cost less to buy, offer a low-maintenance lifestyle and are more climate-friendly. It’s the American Dream, but with a smaller yard.”
Fortunately, the YIMBY movement’s built substantial political power in places like California and the state legislature’s listening to voters after this election by prioritizing affordability.
Besides, the U.S. isn’t alone in this housing crunch; the whole Anglophone world is. Yet we’re seeing places like New Zealand build their way out. Let’s learn from them.
My own Greater LA is starting to see some progress. Places like Santa Monica, Culver City, and West Hollywood (shout out to my friends SaMo Mayor Pro-Tem Caroline Torosis, WeHo Mayor Chelsea Byers, and former WeHo Mayor, now Councilmember John Erickson !) now have pro-housing majority city councils. Considering the high volume of jobs these cities hold, these victories mean positive changes for the future.
In her first two years, LA’s Mayor Karen Bass has dramatically increased housing starts and successfully cut down on homelessness.
The “Not in My Back Yard” (NIMBY)-fueled housing crisis is abetted by other factors: private equity controlling large swaths of the housing stock, sites like RealPage driving up rental prices across entire cities, new construction disproportionately concentrated in working class communities in ways that displace longtime residents instead of increasing housing in affluent, job-heavy neighborhoods, lackluster enforcement for tenant protections, among others. Ignore those challenges at our peril, but we shouldn’t lose the forest for the trees.
As we gear up for 2025, consider joining your local YIMBY chapter. Californians, we have many other groups to support: CA YIMBY, Housing Action Coalition, Abundant Housing LA, and LA Forward.
I know that change is hard, but if we want to save our democracy, we have to accept having more neighbors. Without changing these policies, we doom ourselves to entrenched GOP rule and a working class that feels more alienated from us than ever.
Think of it this way: welcoming more neighbors means establishing more community and democracy that keeps us safe. Building more housing = building strength in numbers.
We have a lot of work ahead of us. May we all have a restorative holiday period and beginning to 2025.
Food for Thought
I talked to Ruben Gallego. Democrats should listen to him., Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post
Are Those Young Men Gone Forever?, Ilyse Hogue, Democracy Journal
The great Latino apology: It’s ‘the street,’ stupid, Gabriel Buelna & Enrique Buelna, Fulcrum
What Does It Really Mean To Be Pro-Israel? and Being Pro-Palestine is Pro-Israel Jeremy Ben-Ami, Word on the Street
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